CHINA; and AMERICAN Codependency


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The story is not rocket science, but somebody had to write it: China has spent the last thirty years moving its population from the countryside to the megacities of the coast, where they assemble but increasingly also design consumer products that we buy in the West. Perhaps even the largest on at least a couple of these measures. Either the US government must cut the deficit or it must invest.

Either the citizens should spend or they should chase even further into the sky via their saving money the very assets the Fed has inflated with its sundry bubblicious activities. And that, of course, is what we fanatics love about Steve Roach!


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View 1 comment. As this book opens with rather clear historical explanations for the codependency that tightly binds the United States and China, I would have preferred a greater ability to forecast the future and especially greater clarity with regard to all the U. But maybe these explanations were there and I just do not I have understood Per quanto questo libro apra a spiegazioni storiche piuttosto chiare per la codipendenza che lega strettamente Stati Uniti e Cina, avre As this book opens with rather clear historical explanations for the codependency that tightly binds the United States and China, I would have preferred a greater ability to forecast the future and especially greater clarity with regard to all the U.

Ma magari queste spiegazioni c'erano e sono io che non le ho capite Aug 28, A rated it really liked it. Excellent overview of the codependent relationship of America world's consumer and China world producer.


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Logiclly spells out the historical conditions, policy choices and leaderhship regimes that contributed to the ever tigther coupling of the two economies. Concludes by articulating the case for how the codependency may wind down in the coming years Good economic support data to back up the claims, would have preferred to see more charts, data to drive the point home about how interwined and reliant both sides are on eachother at this point.

Write by a former chief economist of Morgan Stanley, this often repetitive book explains clearly that while both the United States and China have benefited from the former's excessive consumption and the latter's cheap labor and excessive saving, this arrangement is clearly unsustainable. Rectifying these are easier said than done.

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However, they are far from impossible and the author suggests how the United States can grasp the opportunity to reap benefits from assisting China to increase its pr Write by a former chief economist of Morgan Stanley, this often repetitive book explains clearly that while both the United States and China have benefited from the former's excessive consumption and the latter's cheap labor and excessive saving, this arrangement is clearly unsustainable. Three economic consequences stand out.

First, imposing tariffs on imports of Chinese goods and services would be the functional equivalent of a tax hike on American consumers.

Can the U.S. and China Survive Without Each Other? (w/ Stephen Roach & Grant Williams)

By diverting US demand away from Chinese trade, the costs of imported goods would undoubtedly rise sharply. Second, trade actions against China could lead to higher US interest rates. In the event of new US tariffs, it seems reasonable to expect China to respond by reducing such purchases, reinforcing a strategy of asset diversification away from US dollar-based assets that has been under way for the past three years.

In an era of still-large US budget deficits — likely to go even higher in the aftermath of Trump administration tax cuts and spending initiatives — the lack of demand for Treasuries by the largest foreign owner could well put upward pressure on borrowing costs. Third, with growth in US domestic demand still depressed, American companies need to rely more on external demand. Yet the Trump administration seems all but oblivious to this component of the growth calculus.

The US And China's Codependency Is Unhealthy: Stephen Roach

Codependency never ends well in personal relationships. Judging by the ever-escalating trade conflict between the United States and China, the same is true of economic relationships. Although I published a book in on the codependent economic relationship between the US and China, I would be the first to concede that it is a stretch to generalize insights from human psychology to assess the behavior of national economies. But the similarities are striking, and the prognosis all the more compelling, as the world's two largest economies move toward a dangerous quagmire.

This is not a stable condition. Codependency deepens as partner feedback tends to grow in importance and self-confidence steadily diminishes as a result.

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The relationship becomes highly reactive and fraught, with mounting tensions. Invariably, one partner hits a limit and seeks a new source of sustenance. This leaves the other feeling scorned, steeped in denial and blame, and ultimately with a vindictive urge to lash out in response. The case for US-China economic codependency has been compelling for many years. On the brink of collapse in the late s, due to the cumulative convulsions of economic policies and the "cultural revolution ", China turned to the US for external support for late leader Deng Xiaoping's strategy of "reform and opening-up".

The US, in the grip of stagflation in the late s, was eager to seek new growth solutions; low-cost Chinese imports were the antidote for income-constrained American consumers. Born out of innocence, this two-way dependency blossomed into a seemingly blissful marriage of convenience.

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Alas, it was not a loving relationship. As the human pathology of codependency would predict, a parting of the ways eventually occurred. China's progress has been mixed, but the endgame is no longer in doubt, underscored by a shift from surplus savings to savings absorption.

After peaking at At the same time, an explosion of e-commerce in an increasingly digitized that is, cashless economy is providing a powerful platform for China's emerging middle-income consumers. And a transformation from imported to indigenous innovation is central to China's long-term strategy, both to avoid the "middle-income trap" and to achieve major power status by , as per President Xi Jinping's "new era" centenary aspirations.

Consistent with the human pathology of codependency, China's shifts have become a source of growing discomfort for the US, which can hardly be thrilled with China's savings pivot. With the US' savings shortfall now worsening in the aftermath of last year's poorly timed tax cuts, the country will only become more reliant on surplus savers such as China to fill the void.

Yet China's move to absorb savings narrows that option.

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